Master Builders says Housing Accord is 88,800 homes behind as new modelling points to 10,700 fewer homes

Master Builders Australia has warned that housing supply is going backwards, saying the National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million new homes is already 88,800 homes behind and that updated modelling shows the Government’s housing policies will reduce supply further. The statement, issued by chief executive Denita Wawn on 11 September 2026, adds to a run of industry warnings about costs, workforce and policy settings.

What Master Builders said

MBA said initial independent modelling released after the Budget estimated the Government’s housing policies would result in 8,700 fewer homes being built over the next four years, and that updated analysis released on the morning of 11 September put that figure at 10,700, following the Government’s deal with the Greens to restrict self-managed super funds from investing in the sector. The statement did not name who produced the modelling.

According to MBA, the policy direction reflected in the modelling would mean fewer dwelling starts, reduced investment in new housing supply and more pressure on renters, as well as 4,700 fewer construction jobs and $1.05 billion less GDP. It also said proposed changes to the taxation of trusts were creating further uncertainty in the building and construction sector.

The statement repeated several of MBA’s broader claims: that regulation adds up to $320,000 to the cost of a new home; that the construction workforce is projected to be almost one million workers short by 2035; that the National Construction Code and the skilled migration system are unfit for purpose; and that employer apprentice incentives have been cut. MBA called for governments to remove supply barriers, reduce unnecessary regulation, improve the investment environment and fix the construction code, skilled migration and apprenticeship systems.

How it fits with the official figures

The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council’s August 2026 Quarterly Report found about 308,000 homes completed since the Accord began, around a quarter of the target, with completions data covering the first seven of twenty quarters. The Council now expects the 1.2 million target to be reached in the December quarter of 2030, about eighteen months after the Accord period ends.

Estimates of how far behind the target is vary with the method and data used, and MBA’s statement did not set out how it calculated 88,800. The Council frames progress mainly as the date by which it expects the target to be reached. Either way, the direction is the same: completions are running below the pace the target requires.

The SMSF changes

The modelling update follows the restriction on self-managed super funds borrowing to invest in residential property, which PointCPD covered in August. The Housing Industry Association warned at the time that the change would reduce detached home commencements, and MBA has now linked it to a larger estimated reduction in supply. The ban was agreed between the Government and the Greens in late June to secure Senate passage of the Budget tax package, and new SMSF borrowing for residential property ended on 10 August. For builders, the practical question is whether investor demand for new homes, particularly house-and-land packages and small developments, softens further.

The workforce claim

MBA’s figure of almost one million workers short by 2035 comes from its Future Workforce Blueprint, released on 7 September, which modelled a cumulative shortage of 935,600 workers by 2035 if governments take no action, and a current shortage of 141,000 skilled workers. The Blueprint named four priority reforms: a Commonwealth payroll tax rebate on apprentice wages, expanded Group Training Organisations, reform of recognition of prior learning, and a Construction Training Bond.

The regulation claim

MBA’s claim that regulation adds up to $320,000 to the cost of a new home is an upper-end estimate across planning, taxes, charges and building regulation, and the statement does not break it down. Regulation also delivers outcomes that governments and consumers value, including safety, energy efficiency and protection against defects. In NSW, the building reforms of recent years were a response to serious defects in apartment buildings. The debate is about which requirements deliver value for their cost, not whether buildings should be regulated.

Reading industry modelling

Industry statements play an important role in the housing debate, and builders are right to pay attention to them. They are also advocacy, and it is worth reading them the way you would read any claim that affects your business. Modelling depends on its assumptions: how sensitive investors are to tax and lending changes, how many would have built new homes anyway, and what happens to demand elsewhere in the market. When the modeller is not named and the method is not published, the figures are hard to test. That does not make them wrong, but it does mean they are best treated as one estimate among several.

The more reliable indicators for a builder are the ones that come out every month and quarter: ABS building approvals and commencements, lending data, the Supply Council’s reports, and the enquiries and signed contracts in your own business. If the modelling is right, it will show up in those numbers. For a small builder planning the next year, the practical steps are the same whatever the modelling says: keep an eye on investor enquiries, price carefully, and avoid depending on a single type of client.

What it means for builders

• Investor demand. If the modelling is right, investor-driven demand for new homes will soften, affecting builders who rely on house-and-land packages and small developments.
• Policy uncertainty. Proposed changes to trusts, a common structure for small builders and developers, are worth watching closely with your accountant.
• Workforce pressure. Whatever happens to demand, the shortage of skilled trades is structural and will keep pressure on labour costs.
• Costs. Costs remain well above pre-pandemic levels, and the feasibility of marginal projects is under pressure.

What to watch

• Publication of the modelling behind the 10,700 figure, and any government response.
• The detail of the proposed trust changes and their timing.
• ABS building approvals for August, due in early October, for signs of weaker investor demand.
• The next National Housing Supply and Affordability Council quarterly report.

Questions builders ask

• Housing Accord
• Housing supply
• Skills shortage
• SMSF

Published 12 September 2026. General information for builders, not legal, financial or engineering advice for a specific job. Check current requirements with the relevant regulator or standard before relying on them.