Housing Accord target slips to December 2030, with NSW not expected to hit its share until 2032

The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council now expects Australia to reach the National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million new homes in the December quarter of 2030, one quarter later than it forecast in April. Its August 2026 Quarterly Report, released on 21 August, shows approvals and commencements have lifted since the Accord began, but rising costs, higher interest rates and softer sentiment are expected to defer some construction.

For NSW builders, the state-by-state figures are the headline: NSW is not expected to reach its share of the target until the March quarter of 2032.

What the report found

The Council compared the latest data with the quarter just before the Accord began in mid-2024:

• Approvals: quarterly building approvals up 26%.
• Commencements: quarterly commencements up 15%.
• Under construction: 244,000 dwellings in the March quarter 2026, the highest since records began in 1984.
• Completions: around 308,000 new homes completed since the Accord started, roughly a quarter of the target, with seven of the Accord’s 20 quarters of data now in.
• Build times: new houses about 10% faster to build, comparing 2024–25 with 2023–24.

On costs, the Council said higher fuel and petrochemical prices from the Middle East conflict have flowed through to housing construction costs in recent months. House construction costs rose 2% in the June quarter 2026 and are now 51% higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In real terms, adjusted for general inflation, the cost of building new houses is now 0.2% higher than when the Accord started; the Council’s March report, using earlier data before the conflict, had found it 0.9% cheaper.

The Council warned that rising costs may reduce the financial feasibility of some projects, and that softer market sentiment and recent interest rate increases are likely to see some construction deferred. It described the recent tax policy changes as likely to have a modest impact on housing supply.

State by state

The Council estimates when each state and territory will reach its share of the Accord target, based on population shares when the Accord was agreed. The results vary widely.

NSW has built 21% of its share of the target so far, according to the report, and approved 27%. Its expected completion date has moved back three quarters, from June 2031 to March 2032. Building approvals in NSW were up 6% over the past 12 months, but completions were down 1%.

Victoria, Western Australia and the ACT are expected to reach their shares by December 2029. Queensland and South Australia are expected in March 2031. Tasmania and the Northern Territory are further behind.

What it means for builders

The pipeline is full, but slowing at the front

A record number of dwellings under construction means the industry is busy finishing what it has started. At the same time, the Council expects some new construction to be deferred. For builders, that looks like a strong workload now and a softer intake of new work over the coming quarters, which matches what the Reserve Bank said about new housing loans falling.

Costs are the swing factor

The Council explicitly links cost increases to feasibility. When the cost of building rises faster than what buyers can pay, projects stop making sense, particularly apartments and medium density with thin margins. Builders pricing new work should expect clients and developers to push hard on price, and should be careful not to absorb cost increases they cannot recover.

NSW builders: more policy, more pressure

NSW is the furthest behind of the large states, and the Government has responded with a long list of supply initiatives, which the Council catalogued: zoning reforms for low and mid-rise housing and transport-oriented development, pattern books, faster approvals pathways, council performance measures, and the new modern methods of construction framework. For builders, that means continued regulatory change and continued political pressure to deliver more homes faster, alongside tougher regulation of quality.

Why completions matter more than approvals

The Accord target is measured in completed homes. Approvals and commencements have risen, but completions have not yet caught up, partly because more of the pipeline is in higher-density projects that take longer to build, and partly because of trade shortages and costs. The Council’s estimate of December quarter 2030 depends on the pipeline converting into completions at a faster rate than so far.

For builders, the practical implication is that the constraint is increasingly on delivery: trades, costs, finance and approvals speed, rather than on demand for new housing in principle.

What the Council says about policy

The report lists supply initiatives across every state and territory since the Accord began. In NSW, those include zoning reforms for low and mid-rise housing, the Transport Oriented Development program, infill affordable housing bonuses, pattern book designs for low and mid-rise homes, faster pathways for large projects through the Housing Delivery Authority, council performance targets and league tables, and the new framework for modern methods of construction, which the Council flagged as a new initiative since its March report.

On tax, the Council said recent tax policy developments are likely to have a modest impact on housing supply, and it supports the changes as a step to improve affordability. That view sits in contrast to industry groups, which have argued that some changes, particularly the SMSF borrowing ban, will reduce new housing supply.

Reading the numbers carefully

The Council notes significant uncertainty in its outlook, and expected completion dates will be revised as new data arrive. Different measures also cover different periods: approvals data run to June 2026, completions to March 2026. For builders, the useful signals are the direction of approvals in your state, the cost trend, and the Council’s warning that some construction is likely to be deferred.

What to watch

• Construction work done for the June quarter, due from the ABS next week, which shows how much building is actually being carried out.
• July building approvals, due in early September.
• The next Quarterly Report from the Council, and whether the expected completion date moves again.

Questions builders ask

• Construction costs
• Housing Accord
• Housing supply
• NSW

Published 22 August 2026. General information for builders, not legal, financial or engineering advice for a specific job. Check current requirements with the relevant regulator or standard before relying on them.